Downtown & North Everett Market Stats - June

Downtown and North Everett are a couple of my favorite areas to work and play, so I like to keep abreast of what is going on in that market. So I have decided to start publishing market statistics for the central Everett area (which includes Bayside, Riverside, the Business District, Stadium, Rucker Hill and Forest Park) here on my blog. If you would like a breakdown of a specific neighborhood let me know and I will be happy to provide that for you.

All statistics are hand calculated by me, using NWMLS data, and include the period June 1, 2007 through June 30, 2007

Active Listings
Listing Count: 104 (this includes ALL active listings through June 30, regardless of date listed)
Average Time on Market: 76 days
Median List Price: $298,450
Average $ Per Square Foot: $212 (range: $111 to $475)

Under Contract (includes Contingent, Active STI and Pending)
Listing Count: 53
Average Time On Market: 50 Days
Median List Price: $272,500
Average $ Square Foot: $252

Sold Listings
Listing Count: 40
Average Time On Market: 50 Days
Median Sale Price: $323,445
Average $ Square Foot: $193 (range: $110 to $364)

Interestingly, times on market are longest in the $300,000 to $500,000 price range, at 87 days. Five out of 39 properties in this price range have been on the market longer than 200 days. One property in this price range was originally priced at $1.8 million and was recently dropped into this price range in May. The property in this price range that has been on the market longest has been on for 379 days (it is new construction and part of a new townhome development called BelMonte Heights in Riverside).

Average time on market is shortest in the $500,000 and up price range at 64 days. There are only 8 homes in this price range currently on the market, with the top priced home in North Everett currently listed at $2.9 million. Excluding this particular home, which has been listed for 289 days, the average time on market would only be 31 days.

What does this tell us? Demand for homes in this area is strongest in the highest price range. North Everett, particularly Rucker Hill and Bayside north of 19th, has always been an area known for its high end homes, many of which boast incredible views of Puget Sound and Port Gardner.

Other areas near Everett's downtown, such as Riverside and Stadium, boast a lot of great starter homes and rental property for which demand tends to be pretty strong.

In between however, there are fewer options, and fewer buyers looking for those homes. That price range tends to be dominated by families, for whom schools are a big concern. Many of these families choose to live in more suburban areas such as Mukilteo, Mill Creek, Silver Lake or Snohomish.

Overall, the central Everett market has about 5 weeks of inventory based on June figures, indicating a strong seller's market for homes in this area.

Note that according to the NWMLS system-generated chart below - click to see a larger version - inventory is about evenly divided between new listings (less than 30 days on market) and older listings.

Mukilteo Market Stats - June

Here are the market stats for the month of June in Mukilteo.

Sales activity was strong, with twice as many properties going under contract and closing in the month of June as were listed. However, we had a fairly large backlog of inventory coming into June, so even with the increasing sales activity, we still have a 2 month supply of inventory as of June 30.

As an aside, we calculate supply by looking at the number of listings on the market and dividing by the number of listings that went under contract or sold during a given period. Last month, we had a 2.5 month supply of inventory, which means that at the current rate of sales, it would take 2 fewer weeks to sell through the entire stock of housing inventory in Mukilteo than it would have during May. This tells us that things have in fact picked up for the summer.

I would classify this as a healthy market, if somewhat slower than last year (last year we only had about a 1 month supply of inventory). A balanced real estate market (a market that is neither a buyer's market nor a seller's market) occurs when there is about 2 to 4 months of inventory, though some would classify as a buyer's market any inventory levels of more than 6 months, and a seller's market as inventory levels of more than 6 months. Clearly, here in Mukilteo we are in a balanced market that leans towards still being a seller's market. But, with inventory levels up over the last two years, buyers definitely have more leverage than they have had in some time.

One sector of the market that plays a big role in how days on market numbers as a whole pan out is properties over $1,000,000. These properties comprise about 10% of the market in Mukilteo, and typically, we expect to see longer market times in this sector of the market. And this is what we are seeing. Currently, it is taking an average of 130 days to get properties in this price range "under contract" and it is taking an average of 139 days to get them to sell. But we have several properties in this price range which have been on the market in excess of 250 days, which has increased days on market figures for Mukilteo as a whole.

That's my analysis, here's the data. All statistics are hand calculated by me, using NWMLS data, and include Mukilteo (in city limits) ONLY for the period June 1, 2007 through June 30, 2007:

Active Listings
Listing Count: 92 (this includes ALL listings currently on the market, regardless of date listed)
Average Time on Market: 88 days
Median List Price: $622,475
Average $ Per Square Foot: $259

There were 25 new listings in the month of June

Under Contract (includes Contingent, Active STI and Pending)
Listing Count: 21
Average Time On Market: 55 Days
Median List Price: $579,900
Average $ Square Foot: $252

Sold Listings
Listing Count: 29
Average Time On Market: 123
Median Sale Price: $620,820
Average $ Square Foot: $238

This graphic shows the breakdown of time on market for properties currently listed. Last month, about 54% of our inventory was less than 30 days old. This month, we are seeing more balance between new and older listings.

Mukilteo Market Stats - May

I am bringing a new feature to this blog, which if nothing else will ensure that I post here at least once a month. I've decided to begin posting market statistics for the city of Mukilteo once a month--I'm starting with the month of May 2007.

In case anyone is wondering, now is a great time to buy real estate. And it's a good time to sell too, as long as you list your home at a reasonable price. By reasonable I do not mean LOW, I simply mean a price that is in line with the market. The reality is, 20% increases in housing prices every year are not sustainable unless we are all getting 20% raises every year, which I would submit we are not. I think we are moving out of that crazy seller's market, which is a good thing, as buyers have been getting the short end of the stick for several years now.

The big difference I am seeing between this year and last is that there is a lot more inventory on the market. Some of it is selling quickly, and some of it is not. Overall however, time on market is definitely up as compared to this time last year. Oddly, sale prices are up as well.

The usual relationship between time on market and sale price is that as time on market increases, sale price decreases, time on market being a pretty good indicator of demand for housing. But that pattern is not what we're seeing this year. We have a lot more supply than last year. But that doesn't necessarily mean oversupply, because if you were paying attention last year, you would have noticed that we had too few homes listed, which was driving prices up. Now we have lots of homes listed, but demand is still healthy enough to prevent any reductions in price. However, buyers definitely have a lot more homes to choose from.

Having more choices means buyers can now be more selective. Homes that aren't in good condition or that are over-priced are now sitting on the market, where a year or two ago, buyers' desperation to get into a home meant that even overpriced, ugly houses weren't too difficult to sell. One thing to note is that 57% of homes in Mukilteo that were on the market in May sold within 30 days. That is still a market where if your home is well-prepared and priced correctly, you are still very likely going to be able to sell it without much difficulty. Note also that Mukilteo has a lot of luxury properties, and those tend to take longer to sell.

By and large we're not seeing prices come down, but as you would expect we are seeing some fairly significant reductions (5% or more) among homes that have been on the market longer than 90 days. I would submit that those homes were overpriced anyway, and the price reductions are bringing them in line with where they should be.

That's my analysis, here's the data. All statistics are courtesy of the NWMLS, and include Mukilteo (in city limits) ONLY for the period May 1, 2007 through May 31, 2007:

Active Listings
Listing Count: 89
Average Time On Market: 90 Days
Median List Price: $582,450
Average $ Square Foot: $264

Under Contract (includes Contingent, Active STI and Pending):
Listing Count: 19
Average Time On Market: 86 Days
Median List Price: $595,845
Average $ Square Foot: $294

Sold Listings
Listing Count: 21
Average Time On Market: 90 Days
Median Sale Price: $434,000
Average $ Square Foot: $247

Here are a couple of statistical charts, courtesy of NWMLS. The first one shows the breakdown of how our inventory in Mukilteo is aging. You can see that even with all the inventory, 57% of listings still sell within 30 days. The second chart shows the relationship between list and sale price, illustrating that price reductions are tied to time on market.