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The Mukilteo Chamber's long-awaited summer concert takes place Saturday August 4th at the Village Center in Harbour Pointe. The bands scheduled to play include: Tweety and the Tomcats, Soundview, Bad Habit, Janine Elf and The Stephen Grace Band. The concert starts at 2pm and goes until 8pm. There will be food tents and a beer garden for those 21 and over so the concert should be a great opportunity to meet and greet Mukilteo residents and enjoy a free day of good music. Mukilteo.
Further afield, Seafair weekend is this weekend. I-90 bridge closes today and tomorrow from 9am to noon, and of course the Blue Angels will be doing their thing through Sunday. As usual, this will give local "uptight Seattleites" plenty to complain about what with the noise and all. As for me, I will thrill to the sound of F-18 Hornets as they scream overhead any time I can. I am a Navy brat and an Air Force veteran after all--that's not noise, it's the sound of FREEDOM.
I jest. It's actually the sound of 40-year old technology. But seriously, I don't mind the noise--it makes the heart palpitate, which is a sensation I kind of enjoy.
If that doesn't make you feel better about the noise then just remember folks--the hydros and the Blue Angels are a couple of the last celebrations we have of Seattle's blue collar heritage. Think of it as a way to remember that Seattle is the town airplanes and lumber mills built.
And the Seafair airshow is usually pretty good, if you like airshows. I realize there are those who don't but in the interest of full disclosure I submit that I am married to a Boeing engineer so by default, I like airshows. Seattle.
Other stuff
Thursday
A summer concert series planned at Alderwood mall, featuring food, music, book readings and special activities, runs from 5 to 9 p.m. Thursdays through Aug. 23. Go to http://www.alderwoodmall.com/ and click on "events."
Open mike night for musicians and poets at Zippy's Java Lounge, 7 p.m. Thursdays, 1804 Hewitt Ave., Everett.
Friday
Farmers Market at Country Village, 10 a.m. to 3 p.m. Fridays through September, 23718 Seventh Ave. SE, Bothell.
Free First Friday Afternoon 3 to 5:30 p.m. Friday at Imagine Children's Museum, 1502 Wall St., Everett. For more information, go to http://www.imaginecm.org/.
Edmonds Outdoor Movie Night, at dusk Friday, Frances Anderson Center playfield, 700 Main St., Edmonds. Bring a blanket or lawn chair. Call Edmonds Parks and Recreation at 425-771-0230.
Saturday
The Future of Flight Aviation Center offers a "Day of Learning" 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Saturday, 8415 Paine Field Blvd. Mukilteo. For information and tickets, call 800-464-1476 or go to http://www.futureofflight.org/.
Edmonds Museum Farmers Market, 9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Saturdays through Oct. 28, Bell Street between Fifth and Sixth avenues, Edmonds. 425-774-0900.
Mukilteo Chamber Concert (see above)
Sunday
Everett Farmers Market, 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. Sundays, 1600 W. Marine View Drive, Everett.
NEXT WEEK
Wednesday
Music on the Plaza Concert Series from 11:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m. at the Snohomish County office campus, 3000 Rockefeller Ave., Everett. The concert series runs each Wednesday through Aug. 22. 425-388-3186.
Mukilteo Farmers Market, 3 to 7 p.m. Wednesdays through Oct. 5, 304 Lincoln Ave., Mukilteo.
This post by "The Mass. Mouth" Michael Freedberg sums up quite nicely I think what is currently going on in the housing market in North King and South Snohomish counties. Freedberg is based in Massachusetts, but his observation could be applied to anywhere that is experiencing similar market phenomena.
The Mouth's supposition is that in a changing market, the reason prices will initially be observed to rise even as time on market and number of homes being sold is shrinking is because when the market changes, only the best homes on the market will sell.
He said some other things I didn't agree with as much, but this explanation of why prices are still rising as inventory creeps up along with time on market, did make sense to me.
This is certainly what I have observed in my neck of the woods. Currently, we have more homes on the market than buyers looking to purchase. So, buyers have their pick from the cream of the crop. That just means that if a home comes on the market and is not the best one in its price range, it ain't gonna sell. It's got to compete and win in order to sell. It's really as simple as that.
Now, a couple of years ago, quality didn't matter as much because buyers so heavily outweighed sellers. I think in some places such as close-in King county we're still seeing this kind of market, though even there things have slowed a bit. But here in the outskirts (North King and South Snohomish County) what I'm seeing is pretty much what Michael describes: the best stuff sells, and the worst sits on the market until price reductions finally cause it to move or sellers take it off the market.
So then the question is, "why am I talking about this?"
Simply because--and I wish the National Association of Realtors would realize this--you can't fight market forces by pretending they don't exist. It's best to understand and accept what the market is doing, and then plan your strategy accordingly. No matter what the market may be doing, there is a winning strategy. Usually, that strategy is to do the exact OPPOSITE of what the rest of the herd is doing.
Market forces are a lot like a mob, they move on momentum. Once momentum gets going, it's got to run its course. Which it will do in time. There's no need to panic when it comes to observing market forces in operation. What I am constantly telling people is that it's okay if prices come off last year's highs--they have to if normal people are going to be able to afford a home in the future.
15% appreciation every year (or more) is not normal--not unless we all start getting 15% raises every year. Normal appreciation is a rate that outpaces inflation, but not by a lot. Back in the day when I took economics in college, we were told that 5 - 8% return on real estate was pretty good. Stocks should be in the range of 8 to 10%. However, these are rates of return over time--the way it looks in reality is typically that prices go up fast, then drop back or level off before they go up again. If they go up a lot, they can drop back a lot--or they can be stagnant.
In areas where there is a lot of in-migration such as Seattle, I would expect stagnation rather than price declines, but it depends on a variety of economic factors. If something happened to shift the supply of jobs elsewhere, then, obviously I would be more concerned. But in general our overall economy in the area is good. Therefore, people will be needing a place to live.
Given that, I would not expect to see a mass exodus out of the housing market given that the pool of rental properties has declined over the last few years (condo conversions anyone?) so renting is not really that great of an option at this time. Rents have gone up significantly along with housing prices and of course, the law of supply and demand dictates that if demand for rentals goes up and supply doesn't meet the demand, then prices for rentals will also increase.
So it's natural for markets to move up or down. The thing that is important to keep in mind, is that they usually recover. Supply and demand will eventually bring a market back to equilibrium. A healthy market is one where neither buyers nor sellers have too much power, and neither supply nor demand is too far out of whack. In fact you could say that we are recovering right now from a market where sellers had too much power, and buyers didn't have enough.
The only time markets don't recover, is when the need for the thing that is being bought and sold goes away. I don't think the day will ever come when people won't need a roof over their head.
No matter what happens, I believe that home ownership will always be an important goal for most people. And like Scarlett OHara, I believe that a piece of land is the most important thing you can own, because it gives you roots. As the child of a life-long renter, owning my own home is an incredibly significant achievement to me. It represents stability, faith in myself, and faith in the future.
I also believe that it's a sound financial move for most people, most of the time.
A couple of years ago I wrote a blog post about how a person could decide whether to renovate their home or buy a new one. Well, it turns out this is by far the most popular search term for people who find their way to this blog, so with that in mind I thought it was probably time to expand upon the original post.
Here are a few more things for people who are trying to make this decision to think about:
1. A good rule of thumb for how much you should spend on a renovation is, do not renovate if the cost exceeds 30% of your home's value. More than that and you are in "overimprovement" territory and you may find it difficult to recoup the value.
2. You should consider the neighborhood. Renovations will show more ROI in some neighborhoods than others. If others around you are renovating their homes, it probably makes sense to renovate yours too. If other homes around yours are not being kept up, you will probably find it more difficult to get a return on your renovations. So, compare your home to the surroundings. Also, find out if there are any changes, such as new construction, road expansions or zoning changes, coming to your neighborhood. A call to your city or county planning department will only take a few minutes but could save you money in the long run.
3. Remember that renovation or remodeling is not the same thing as maintenance and upkeep. Maintenance and upkeep includes things like repairing a roof, new exterior paint, etc. These are just part of the cost of owning a house and do not usually add value to the house. Renovations that are mostly cosmetic, such as installing new flooring, also do not necessarily add value. However, adding additional square footage to your home or adding to the functionality of your home--for instance, upgrading a kitchen--typically do add value.
4. You need to look at what the market is doing. If the market is appreciating, you probably will be able to recoup some or all of the costs of your renovations as long as you choose them wisely. If the market is depreciating, this will be more difficult.
5. Consider the factors that a buyer would look at when evaluating your home. Are the schools good? Is the neighborhood generally good? Would a buyer pay more for a home in your neighborhood with the planned renovations? For instance, in some new construction tracts or condominium complexes, homes tend to be pretty similar, and they typically sell in a certain price range. When buyers are looking at the homes, they will compare your home to others that have sold. In neighborhoods like this, it's harder to recoup the value of renovations than in neighborhoods where the homes are more diverse. Older homes, even if they were originally tract homes and fairly similar, will typically show more diversity over time and it is somewhat more likely that you will be able to find "comps" to support your new price.
6. Most importantly, does your home fit with your lifestyle overall? Ultimately, the best renovations are the ones that make it possible for you to enjoy your home now and for several years to come, while still adding resale value when you are ready to sell. Sometimes, we just outgrow our homes and the renovations we perform simply forestall the inevitable. If you think this may be the case, it probably makes sense to consider a move.
No matter where you live in the United States, there is always some kind of natural disaster that is common to the area. If you live on the East Coast, you have hurricanes. The midwest and mountain states have tornadoes. Here in the Pacific Northwest (and all up and down the West Coast) we have earthquakes...and volcanoes.
This is one of the big concerns that is expressed to me by people moving here from out of the area, and it's something that we who live here do need to keep in our minds and be prepared for. They don't happen very often, but when they do, there is no warning. So, you need to be prepared and know what to do BEFORE they occur.
Here is a list of the Top 5 Things You Should Do Before, During and After an Earthquake.
Before
1. Have your disaster preparedness kit ready. It should include at least a 3 day supply of non-perishable food and water, protective clothing, bedding, battery powered flashlights and batteries, a first aid kit and any essential medications, a working fire extinguisher. You should have a kit in your home (everyone should know where it is) and one in your car.
2. Have a disaster/earthquake plan. This includes having an out of town contact that knows how to reach you in case of emergency, and making sure others know who that person is. If possible, take a first aid class.
3. Identify a safe place in every room of your home, and practice "Drop, Cover and Hold On."
4. Identify and mitigate any safety issues in your home BEFORE a disaster occurs. This includes strapping or bolting down any "tippy" objects in your home, such as bookshelves, cabinets and water heaters. As an aside, if you're buying a home, strapping the water heater is an item that comes up on our home inspections in Washington state so if you can get the seller to address it, that's one less thing for you to worry about later. It costs about $20 so there is no reason not to do it.
5. If your home is on natural gas, you should know where your shut-off valves are and know how to use them. Posting written instructions in your home is a helpful tip, in case you are not home when disaster strikes.
During
1. During an earthquake, move away from any windows.
2. Go to the safe place that you identified before the earthquake and "Drop, Cover and Hold On." Protect your face with your arm.
3. If you're in bed, stay there and cover your head with a pillow.
4. If you're outside, move away from any trees, buildings and power lines.
5. If you're in a car, slow down and drive to a clear place. Stay in the car until the shaking stops.
After
1. Check yourself and others for injuries. Administer first aid if necessary. There may be a lot of debris around, so protect yourself from possible injury by wearing long pants, a long sleeved shirt, gloves, and sturdy shoes.
2. If you smell gas or think it may be leaking, turn it off at the shut-off valve and do not turn it back on until instructed to do so by a professional.
3. Check for any small fires and extinguish them. Check your home for damage and be prepared to leave if the home is unsafe.
4. Listen to the radio for instructions. Expect aftershocks and be prepared to "Drop Cover and Hold."
5. Stay off the phone unless there is a life threatening situation.
It's also important to know where to go for help, so here is the contact information for some of our local emergency services providers.
Snohomish County
Snohomish County Red Cross
Phone: 425-252-4103
Website: Snohomish County Red Cross
Snohomish County Emergency Management
Phone: (425) 388-5060 during office hours (call 911 for emergencies)
Website: Snohomish County Emergency Management
King County
Seattle Red Cross
Phone: 206-323-2345
Web site: http://www.seattleredcross.org/
Emergency Services Division
Phone: 206-296-3830 (call 911 for emergencies)
Web site: http://www.metrokc.gov/prepare/
Seattle made another top 10 list this week. Unfortunately, it was the Forbes list of Top 10 Least Affordable Cities. According to the Forbes article,
"A lot of it has to do with regulations and zoning," says Robert Bruegmann,
a history and urban planning professor at the University of Illinois at Chicago.
"The higher cost of doing business--and the uncertainly of business--in places
like California drives up home prices. The cost of building isn't that different
in Houston versus Los Angeles, yet L.A. prices are so much higher. ... One of
the few variables you can look at is regulatory burden."
...Unaffordability is also relative. Few residents of Sacramento,
Calif., and Seattle can afford homes in the areas, but property there is still reasonable by regional standards. Both cities are experiencing strong growth and immigration patterns, in large part due to the fact that they're less costly than West Coast cities like San Francisco, San Diego or Los Angeles...
In honor of studying for my Broker's Exam, I thought I would write an entry about the vocabulary that really is used in real estate listings. These are not the legal terms that all agents and brokers are required to learn for their state licensing requirements, rather, words that are used in the marketing of our listings on a regular basis.
This vocabulary is intended to help the average consumer understand what they see in our listings just a little bit better.
Without further ado:
A
Approximately XXX square feet - We have no idea how big it actually is.
B
Beautiful - The most overused of all Realtor terms. Means "I lacked inspiration and I read somewhere that using the word 'beautiful' will inspire buyers to pay more for this house."
Big enough for the whole family -As long as it is a family of mice.
C
Custom - Seller had it built/installed himself. You will probably want to tear it out/down.
Cute - Small. Very, very small.
D
Den - The oddly-shaped, windowless room under the stairs.
Designer Paint - Not white.
E
Elegant - Everything the seller owns is in storage right now.
Exquisite - Similar to "Beautiful."
F
Finishes (as in, "top-quality finishes throughout") - Normal people refer to this as trim or woodwork. May mean that the seller bought a $15 door trim kit and installed it himself, then added $1,000 to the price.
First-Time Buyers (as in, "Attention First-Time Buyers!") - People with no money, willing to live anywhere.
G
Garage - This is the room that your cars may or may not fit into, after you load it up with all of your stuff.
H
Handyman's Special - Tear down that may actually be falling down. Get an inspection.
I
Investor's Dream - Cheap. See Handyman's Special.
J
Just Listed - This house has been on the market for three months. Please buy it before the seller fires me.
K
Kitchen Upgrades - The garbage disposal (refrigerator, diswasher--insert your appliance of choice) crapped out and the seller had to buy a new one. And he would like YOU, Mr. Buyer, to double his money.
L
Lots of Upgrades - We painted.
M
Many Upgrades - We had the carpets cleaned.
N
Natural Setting - You have to go 10 miles down a dirt road to get to it, if you can ever find it.
O
Open Space - The county won't let me build on it but is taxing me for it anyway.
P
Pastoral Setting - See "Natural Setting." Think of the movie "Deliverance."
Q
Quality (as in "Quality Finishes") - Home Depot special.
R
RV Space - We paved over our entire yard.
S
Seller is motivated - Desperation, people. It's not pretty.
Staged - The listing agent made the seller get rid of his stuff, and also his 30 cats.
T
Truly (as in "Truly beautiful") - I had some extra space in this ad, and nothing else relevant to say.
U
Unbelievable - This one depends on context. If it says "unbelievable view," the house probably has a pretty good view although it may or may not be obstructed. If, however, it just says "Unbelievable!" that usually means that we're hoping you won't notice that the roof is about to cave in. It's only unbelievable because you won't believe someone would actually list their house for sale with it looking like this.
V
Value-Priced - House has nothing going for it except a low price. See "Handyman's Special."
W
Well-appointed - The seller is taking everything with them.
X
Extra Large - Average size.
Y
Why Wait? - Frequently seen on new construction. Means roughly "We're lowering the price in a week." You should wait.
Z
Zilch - Hey, I did pretty good keeping this up all the way until the end but I can't think of anything for Z.
This list is mostly for fun, but I also wrote it to let buyers know that sometimes, words don't mean what they seem to mean. So, read carefully, and to get the most from your home search work with a buyer's agent who previews properties for you.
This is also an admonition to those of us in the business to remember that a lot of these words are overused, and in some cases are not understood the way we meant them, so we must choose our words carefully!
Mukilteo's mayor got a raise, but the pay is still less than the mayors of other nearby cities of similar size, and by my estimation, he is also paid less than the salary of a good administrative assistant. Now, I don't purport to be an expert, but I am thinking the job of mayor is more complex, by far, than what your average administrative assistant would be expected to handle.
Part of the issue with bringing the pay scale for the position of Mukilteo's mayor in line with what a mayor of a city this size would be expected to earn, is the question of whether or not the job should be a full time one or not.
According to Mayor Joe Marine, the job is effectively a full time one whether it's paid as such or not. Others in the community feel that the mayor's job should remain a part time position. When Marine was elected, the position was understood to be a part-time one so some people feel that when Marine chose to run for the office, he should have been prepared to do what he was elected to do based on the pay scale as offered.
I think there is probably some merit to that argument, but on the other hand, I think this is part of a larger problem that the city of Mukilteo seems to have with adapting to change. It seems to me that what once worked for Mukilteo as a small town, can't be expected to work as the city continues to grow. The last 20 or so years has transformed what was once a sleepy little town into now a fairly large suburb. And I would expect that the growth will continue with the healthy economy that we enjoy. So, pretending that we are still a town too small to need infrastructure, to need planning, and to need full time employees to help manage the growth that we are experiencing, seems rather short sighted to me.
Now that I've thrown my hat into the ring on THAT little argument...
Across Puget Sound from Mukilteo, the Clinton ferry terminal on Whidbey Island has been renamed for late Washington Senator Jack Metcalf. I had the good fortune in my life to be acquainted with Mr. Metcalf growing up on Whidbey Island. He was a good man--had a farm not far from our home in Langley and I have fond memories of going to his farm to buy fresh, unpasteurized milk. I also experienced electric fencing for the first time on his farm! He was described by the Seattle Times as "having a reputation for independence and quirkiness." Sounds like a Whidbey Islander to me!
Finally, a real estate tidbit from the Zillow Blog. Today's post called, "Selling or Buying, Better Check that Calendar!" talks about the best time to list or buy a home. No, they are not talking about which month of the year is the hottest buyer's or seller's market. The topic is what day of the week, is the best time to list or make an offer.
Best time to list? Thursday morning. List any earlier in the week and your listing is stale by the weekend. Wait any longer, and you could miss some of the buyers that are searching for homes to tour that weekend. Thursday also gets you on the hotsheet for the buyer's agents that are planning tours for their clients.
Best time to buy? The first Tuesday morning of any month. Why? Because sellers will have just paid their mortgage on the first of the month (ouch!) and by Tuesday they will have given up on receiving any other offers based on the previous weekend's showings.
I think these are interesting thoughts, but there are a couple of other things that clients need to consider. For instance, when listing your home in my area, a Thursday listing will eliminate the possibility of getting your home seen on our Broker's Open, since those occur on Thursday. And in my office, our office tour is Wednesday, so a Thursday listing would mean that clients wouldn't be able to be on tour until the following week.
I'm a bit short on time today, but I've been saving up tidbits for the blog in my Google Reader, so I'm going to round 'em up and head 'em out!
This year's Seattle Street of Dreams home show is now in progress. This SOD differs from previous years in that the show is incorporating a focus on green building techniques. Though the homes featured are still large by any definition and of course they feature all manner of bells and whistles (this is about dreams after all!) , square footage is capped this year at just under 5,000 asf. Street of Dreams takes place in Quinn's Crossing, a community of 48 homes near Maltby.
Redfin has announced that it has received $12 Million in VC funding from Draper Fisher Jurvetson, and is now open for business in the Washington DC market. This has been covered with varying degrees of seriousness all over the blogosphere, but I'm going to chime in with my own two cents here anyway.
The real estate industry today reminds me very much of the IT industry about 8 or 10 years ago. I was involved in that industry at that time, and I recall that retailers were very concerned that their brick and mortar business model was doomed to go the way of the dodo, with the advent of companies like Amazon.com, Drugstore.com, etc. There was a huge influx into the Internet marketplace of online retailers and discounters. Some of these retailers have lasted, and others burned bright and flamed out.
Take as an example, HomeGrocer.com. The media played it up that ordering groceries online was the wave of the future, and competing grocers were concerned that it was a threat to their business model. HomeGrocer soaked up huge amounts of VC funding, but never turned a profit and eventually went out of business.
Even those pure-play dot-com retailers that outlived the dot-com bust, such as Amazon, still struggle. Meanwhile, those companies that effectively combined the best of the web with a brick-and-mortar presence eventually won out. Look at Nordstrom--fabulous website, and fabulous service whether you visit their store online or in real life. At Windermere, we often look to Nordstrom as the gold standard of service and what we should aspire to in our business.
The major real estate brokerages had it good the last few years, with lots of easy sales and plenty of cash to go around--very reminiscent of the 90s dot-com boom. The industry has NOT been quick to adapt to changes in the marketplace but by and large we have a business model that still works. It could be more consumer friendly, and we need to be more proactive about adopting technology.
Technology will revolutionize real estate and the way we do business will change. But the real estate agent will survive, even if we do our jobs somewhat differently, because we provide a service that people want and need. Maybe not EVERY person will need a real estate agent in the future, but enough of population values what we do that we are in no danger of following the dodo into extinction. Though, I would say that the easy money of the last few years has inflated our ranks, and it's likely that there will be a thinning coming. And frankly, it will be good for the industry to have that happen.
What I hope from all this is that companies like Redfin will help the industry move in a more consumer-friendly direction, and that it will force the industry to embrace change, rather than resist it. But will Redfin be the one to outlast the field? I don't think so. They just don't seem to have a business model that will take them to profitability, and they don't have the kind of universal appeal that will allow them to work with the population at large. They are and will always be a niche player. But we do NEED what they are bringing, even if we don't always like it.
Okay, moving on!
There's been ongoing talk of converting the Smith Tower office building in Downtown Seattle into condominiums. Looks like we are a step or two closer to having that happen. The developer is down to the last city approval before they can move forward with the project. Seems like that would be a pretty cool building to live in, if they can upgrade the systems to modern standards. In particular, a faster elevator would be good! And it's a great way to preserve an important piece of Seattle history.
Last item. 3Oceansrealestate blog ran a great feature this morning on how to know when it is the right time to buy a home. Regardless of what the market may or may not be doing, here are the factors buyers should be thinking about:
While it makes sense for investors to try to time the market, with home-buyers, it makes less sense since you are talking about a longer holding period, and also, there are other reasons--tax relief, pride of ownership, stability, etc.-- to buy besides the investment possibilities.
Okay, that's it for today. I. Am. Outta here!
